Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Backyard Moneyball feat. Pablo Sanchez

Recently, in the same week, I finished Michael Lewis' book Moneyball and rediscovered my love for Backyard Baseball 2003. Having very little to do this summer outside of babysitting, I was able to spend a considerable amount of time trying out a theory- that I could apply the theory Lewis explores, i.e. stocking up on undervalued traits like OBP and OPS and passing on "big-money" traits like HR hitting and base-stealing. That being said, here's how I drafted:

1. Pablo Sanchez, C. This is probably the most glaring departure from Billy Beane's standard, that being that everyone is high on Pablo and in a real-world situation, he would only sign for obscene amounts of money. Still, he has the smallest strike zone in the game, and has great speed for someone with so much pop. In fact, in a recent game, "Secret Weapon" (probably one of the least-fitting nicknames ever) hit for the cycle for my Pirates team. This great day at the plate included a 2-out double to drive in a run late in the game.

2. Achmed Khan, LF. The only Backyard kid wearing headphones, Achmed was my second pick because he, like Pablo, has a rare combination of power and speed. He also has one of the smoothest swings in the game, one that is seemingly without a hole if his stance is open. In the first 3 games of the year, he batted .692 and homered 4 times.

3. Pete Wheeler, 2B. Pete strikes out a little too much for a true Moneyball player, but his biggest weakness (strange strike zone leading to strange swing) is also one of his greatest assets- it's so narrow that he walks more than anyone on the team. BYBB 2003 doesn't actually track OPS, but his walks plus a .611 average can't be denigrated. One thing I've tried hard to do, a la Beane, is reign in his base-stealing attempts, because his pure speed used to make me cocky enough to try to steal 2 bases at once, which usually resulted in a juice-draining pickle or an out.

4. Ichiro, RF. Ichiro is the prototype player for creating runs without costing a team many. His only weaknesses seem to be that he outruns whoever is ahead of him on the basepath (unless it's Wheeler), and that he throws rockets that sometimes go over Dante's head. Which brings us to...

5. Dante Robinson, 1B. My brother Dan described him as a 40/40 guy, which I disagree with solely because he is much more valuable as a line-drive, RBI-type hitter than as someone who should be hitting for power. Still, he's another small strike-zone guy who doesn't make many mistakes on defense.

6. Nomar Garciaparra, P. He's one of the most highly valued players in the game, but at SS instead of P. Billy Beane's love of undervalued talent is embodied in Nomar's pitching ability. He doesn't drain his juice box very often, because his best pitch is the "left hook", a deadly accurate pitch that leaves the right side of Nomar's body, hooks to the left, and then runs back across the plate to the right. For right-handed, closed-stance batters, this pitch is nearly impossible to take anywhere but 3rd base via slow roll.

7. Amir Khan, SS. In the inverse of Nomar's situation, Amir plays SS for the Pirates despite being the 2nd most highly-rated pitcher in the game (behind Randy Johnson). The reason I switched Amir away from his preferred position? Lack of faith in the durability of foreign-born pitchers. Not really; I switched them a) because I wanted to do this in Moneyball fashion and not take the most common route to success, and b) because Amir's best pitch is his heater, which drains the juicebox much faster than the left hook. He is the only player I'm aware of that bats with a pre-ordained open stance, but this enables his weirdly long bat to operate effectively and rip the ball to left field whenever he makes good contact.

8. Ken Griffey, Jr., CF. Can spray the ball to both sides of the field, hit homers, and leg it out to beat throws consistently. Also makes a solid outfield anchor, who doesn't always get under the ball in time but makes up for it by having a cannon arm.

9. Troy Glaus, 3B. With an open stance, Troy can hit line drives to left almost as well as Amir, and better than just about anyone else. His lack of speed for an infielder makes him the kind of player that anyone but Billy Beane might pass on or undervalue, but his consistency at the plate and his ability to hit first base with his throws every time make him a core player on defense despite his shortcomings.

I realize that this could have been a monumental waste of time (and will continue to be, since I haven't finished my season yet), but the timing was right for me to try this little experiment and see if the same principles that can make an undervalued team successful in real life might also be applied to a computer game to create a winning team. Of course, it might just be that I win so handily because the game is designed for 10-12 year-olds, but it's still fun to crank BP homers off of Mr. Clanky with Pablo regardless. As Sanchez might say, "Gracias por leer este blog!"